Compared to other apocalyptic scenarios, this does seem a little alarming.

The argument (made in Foreign Policy) says our dwindling supply of phosphorus for fertilizer threatens to destabilize food security across the world in the coming century. A scenario that could lead to a Malthusian trap of widespread famine with global implications.

As the NYT points out, you may remember the food price unrest of 2008, when fertilizer shortages inflated prices across the world. But large amounts of phosphate-based fertilizers continue to be wasted. Since phosphate supplies are a limited worldwide resource, some countries are bound to start feeling the pinch.

But what good are phosphates? FP spells it out …

Phosphorus is used extensively for a variety of key functions in all living things, including the construction of DNA and cell membranes. As it is relatively rare in the Earth’s crust, a lack of phosphorus is often the limiting factor in the growth of plants and algae. In humans, it plays an essential role in bone formation. Without a steady supply of this resource, global agricultural production will face a bottleneck, and humankind’s growing population will suffer a serious nutrition shortage.

The FP article continues:

Our supply of mined phosphorus is running out. Many mines used to meet this growing demand are degrading, as they are increasingly forced to access deeper layers and extract a lower quality of phosphate-bearing rock (phosphate is the chemical form in which nearly all phosphorus is found). Some initial analyses from scientists with the Global Phosphorus Research Initiative estimate that there will not be sufficient phosphorus supplies from mining to meet agricultural demand within 30 to 40 years. Although more research is clearly needed, this is not a comforting time scale.

With some sobering statistics:

Already, signs are emerging that our current practices cannot continue for long. Between 2003 and 2008, phosphate fertilizer prices rose approximately 350 percent. In 2008, rising food prices sparked riots in more than 40 countries. Although the spike in fertilizer prices was only partially responsible for the higher food prices, the riots illustrate the social upheaval caused by disruptions to the world’s food supply. The 2008 food riots were only stopped by government promises of food subsidies — a viable strategy only as long as governments can afford the ever-increasing costs of food support.

And scary implications:

If we fail to meet this challenge, humanity faces a Malthusian trap of widespread famine on a scale that we have not yet experienced. The geopolitical impacts of such disruptions will be severe, as an increasing number of states fail to provide their citizens with a sufficient food supply. This dark scenario need not, however, be our fate. If we are successful in rising to the phosphorus sustainability challenge, as well as other aspects of sustainable agriculture, we can look forward to a future in which families, communities, and countries are healthy and secure in their nutrition and where all live in a world with cleaner rivers, lakes, and oceans.